Using the same grouping methodology as The Statcast GB speed adjustment seems to capture about 40% of the speed effect, except using barrel% (barrels/batted balls), I got the following for air balls (FB, LD, Popup):
|barrel group||FB BA-xBA||FB wOBA-xwOBA||n|
These numbers get closer to the noise range (+/- 0.003), but mashers simultaneously OUTPERFORMING on BA while UNDERPERFORMING on wOBA while weak hitters do the opposite is a tough parlay to hit by chance alone because any positive BA event is a positive wOBA event as well. The obvious explanation to me, which Tango is going with too, is that mashers just get played deeper in the OF, and that that alignment difference is the major driver of what we’ve each measured.
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