With the new Premier Play announcement, we also got two new constructed event payouts and a slightly reworked Traditional Draft.
This is the analysis of the EV of those events for various winrates (game winrate for Bo1 and match winrate for Bo3). I give the expected gem return, the expected number of packs, the expected number of play points, and two ROIs, one counting packs as 200 gems (store price), the other counting packs as 22.5 gems (if you have all the cards). These are ROIs for gem entry. For gold entry, multiply by whatever you’d otherwise use gold for. If you’d buy packs, then multiply by 3/4. If you’d otherwise draft, then the constructed event entries are the same exchange rate.
Traditional Draft (1500 gem entry)
| Winrate | Gems | Packs | Points | ROI (200) | ROI (22.5) |
| 0.4 | 578 | 1.9 | 0.13 | 63.8% | 41.4% |
| 0.45 | 681 | 2.13 | 0.18 | 73.7% | 48.6% |
| 0.5 | 794 | 2.38 | 0.25 | 84.6% | 56.5% |
| 0.55 | 917 | 2.65 | 0.33 | 96.4% | 65.1% |
| 0.6 | 1050 | 2.94 | 0.43 | 109.3% | 74.4% |
| 0.65 | 1194 | 3.26 | 0.55 | 123.1% | 84.5% |
| 0.7 | 1348 | 3.6 | 0.69 | 137.9% | 95.3% |
| 0.75 | 1513 | 3.95 | 0.84 | 153.6% | 106.8% |
THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY VALUE FROM THE CARDS TAKEN DURING THE DRAFT, which, if you value the cards, is a bit under 3 packs on average (no WC progress).
Bo1 Constructed Event (375 gem entry)
| Winrate | Gems | Packs | Points | ROI (200) | ROI (22.5) |
| 0.4 | 129 | 0.65 | 0.03 | 68.7% | 38.2% |
| 0.45 | 160 | 0.81 | 0.05 | 85.9% | 47.4% |
| 0.5 | 195 | 1 | 0.09 | 105.6% | 58.1% |
| 0.55 | 235 | 1.22 | 0.15 | 128.0% | 70.0% |
| 0.6 | 278 | 1.47 | 0.23 | 152.7% | 83.0% |
| 0.65 | 323 | 1.74 | 0.34 | 179.0% | 96.5% |
| 0.7 | 367 | 2.03 | 0.46 | 205.9% | 109.9% |
| 0.75 | 408 | 2.31 | 0.6 | 231.8% | 122.7% |
Bo3 Constructed Event (750 gem entry)
| Winrate | Gems | Packs | Points | ROI (200) | ROI (22.5) |
| 0.4 | 292 | 1.67 | 0.04 | 83.5% | 43.9% |
| 0.45 | 348 | 1.76 | 0.07 | 93.3% | 51.6% |
| 0.5 | 408 | 1.84 | 0.125 | 103.5% | 59.9% |
| 0.55 | 471 | 1.92 | 0.2 | 113.9% | 68.5% |
| 0.6 | 535 | 1.99 | 0.31 | 124.4% | 77.3% |
| 0.65 | 600 | 2.06 | 0.464 | 135.0% | 86.2% |
| 0.7 | 664 | 2.14 | 0.67 | 145.6% | 95.0% |
| 0.75 | 727 | 2.22 | 0.95 | 156.1% | 103.5% |
Hareeb's Hangout 